📚 Explainer

Why our guide price isn't your bookie's SGM price.

Short version: when you stack legs that all rely on the same scenario (your team to win + their star to score) the bookie shortens the price because the legs are correlated. We multiply the legs as a guide. Your bookie always re-prices.

The maths

If three legs are independent and priced at $1.80, $2.20, and $1.65, multiplying gives 1.80 × 2.20 × 1.65 = 6.53. That's the guide price.

But "Liverpool to win" and "Salah anytime goal" share probability mass — both happen more often when Liverpool dominate possession. So the bookie's pricing model shortens the combined price. Typical haircut:

Low correlation (e.g. one leg per match, different teams): expect about 92% of guide.
Medium correlation (1-2 same-team legs): expect about 75% of guide.
High correlation (multiple legs all relying on the same scenario): expect about 55% of guide.

Our Correlation Risk Meter

Every slip you build shows a Low / Medium / High correlation read and an estimated SGM range. We show both numbers — guide and estimate — because it's the only honest way to set expectations.

Try the math

3 legs, each at $2.00 → guide $8.00. With medium correlation the bookie's SGM is likely around $6.00 – $6.80. With high correlation it might be as short as $4.40 – $5.20.

How to find legs that AREN'T correlated

Pair a team-side leg (winner / line) with an opposition-player prop, not a same-team prop.
Mix offensive and defensive markets (over 2.5 goals + clean sheet won't co-exist; over 2.5 + BTTS will).
Avoid stacking multiple "anytime goalscorer" legs from the same team.

For consideration only. Past results never guarantee future ones. 18+ · Gamble responsibly · 1800 858 858 · BetStop.gov.au